Anyone who’s spent time in an Arab country can relate to how conspiracy theories abound in that part of the world. In the past, Israel would invariably top the list of suspects every time the Palestinians got the short end of an event. In more recent times however, it’s Iran that has usurped that distinction, with Israel promptly construed to be behind any machination that negatively impacts Iran or its regional cohorts.
Today, Israel is busier than ever fighting off Iranian encroachments in Syria. It is also seen working zealously to confine the roles of Iran-backed Hezbollah and Hamas in Lebanon and Gaza respectively.
As for the US, President Trump’s choice of Saudi Arabia for his first stop on a maiden trip in May of 2017 had implications beyond the pomp and deference he was greeted with. With regard to Qatar though, it is reasonable to assume that when Trump lectured the congregation of some fifty Moslem leaders to put a stop to Arab financial aid going to Jihadists, Qatar’s isolation and blockade had already been baked into the cake.
Another piece of the puzzle is currently playing out. By May 12, President Trump will have to decide on whether to pull the plug on the nuclear agreement with Iran. With French President Macron currently on a state visit to the US, and with France and other European allies steeply engaged in selling tons of sophisticated products to Iran, the smart money is on Macron talking Trump into leaving the deal with Iran more or less intact.
On first blush, it would therefore seem that both the US and Israel at first went along schemes to isolate Qatar, their main objectives perhaps consisting of placating the Saudis and driving a wedge between one of the richest nations in the world and Iran.
Signs have emerged though that Qatar may of late have played its cards effectively, including a concerted public relations blitz that has boosted its standing, starting with the US.
Qatar’s initial set of arguments had it that the Saudis and Emiratis always wanted to punish it because of its independence, the relative emancipation of its citizens, and its popular stance against tyrannical rule. Furthermore, Qatar claimed that free-wheeling Al-Jazeera, their prime news agency, is the precise symbol that Qatar’s neighbors fear the most. They assert that everything else, including Iran’s participation in their critical gas and oil industry, is nothing but a smokescreen that can easily be resolved, given good faith all around.
Nevertheless, that good faith has yet to emerge. In fact, the sniping and hurling of ugly propagandist claims, particularly between Qatar and its prime detractor in the United Arab Emirates, seem to continue on a cresting trajectory, thrown about copiously and with hardly any consideration for mediation.
Qatar’s PR campaign, unprecedented among Arab nations in both depth and sophistication, is giving reason to believe that Qatar has indeed turned the corner and is winning the diplomatic war with its feuding counterparts. Noteworthy in that regard is the US’s latest posture which, while calling for compromise, emphasizes strong support for Qatar.
It started with strategic talks during visits to the US by the Qatari Emir himself, Sheikh Tamim Ben Hamad Al Thani, and a plethora of visits by other prominent members of the Al Thani family, as well as cabinet ministers, and Qatari figures with significant links to industrial and aviation interests.
To cite a few examples, Qatar first reminded the US media of the importance of the ten thousand-strong Al-Udeid Air Base the US maintains in the near the Qatari capital of Doha. They tout that base as the “refueling station” for planes going to all of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, the latter as recently as a couple of weeks ago when the US and allied planes bombed chemical facilities there.
In a profusion of other bold moves, Qatar pledged investments in the US economy to the tune of $100bn, $10bn of which towards infrastructure projects dear to President Trump’s heart, and the doubling of Qatar’s participation in the Qatar-US Economic Forum’s $125bn partnership. In addition, Qatar’s all-out rallying of public opinion included military partnership with individual states in the US, and large missile deals with the Pentagon. There was additionally an impactful and repetitive Qatari outcry soliciting goodwill from Kuwait, Bahrain, Turkey, and other European players with influence in the Middle East.
There are thus signs, clearer by the day, that underscore Qatar’s effective campaign to rehabilitate itself as a valuable member of the of the fraternity of Gulf states. What is left now is for a few multinational players to line up behind current Kuwaiti efforts to keep the dispute on the forefront of negotiations for a resolution of the conflict that many claim has already caused more regional disruption than was ever called for.