Geopolitics

Trump, Israel, and the Saudis now Shaping the Landscape in the Middle East

Whether you’re a Trumpie, reveling in how President Trump keeps his promises, or a Never-Trumper, horrified at how he revels in dispensing chaos, you can’t but gawk at how he managed to reinvent himself over the past few weeks. In a frenzied sequence involving much “pulling”, he pulled the rug from under the three M’s (May, Macron, and Merkel), pulled the plug on the Iran nuclear deal, pulled the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and, with a bit of luck, might even pull off an implausible deal with the North Koreans. What he is apt to do next is, as usual, one of those things no betting man would want to wager on.

By enlisting Mike Pompeo as new Secretary of State, and John Bolton as new National Security Adviser, Trump has now bolstered his status as head of the most pugnacious three-headed behemoth of the post-Soviet Union era. With a scorching predilection for busting any status quo established by his predecessors—President Obama being the one who especially inflames his prickliness—the question is, what now for the landscape in the Middle East?

To affirm that Israel and the Saudis exulted when President Trump derailed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) would be a gross understatement. The beam on Netanyahu’s face was as wide as the Gaza strip, and the Saudis must have also fizzed with delight. The question nevertheless arose in regard to what Plan B there might be for Iran. Well, several observations can be factored in for a Plan B.

For a start, in the process of doing away with the nuclear deal, no one could have ignored the stern menace on Trump’s face. He spoke forcefully into the cameras and more than once warned Iran against reinstituting any new nuclear aspirations, threatening them with something akin to the B-2 bombers and other naval armadas he sent to the Korean peninsula at a time, only a few months back, when he was attempting to intimidate Kim Jong-un. It seems to have worked then, so why not with the Ayatollahs?

In addition, it took what seemed only seconds after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA that the Israelis sent fighter jets and bombers on dozens of anti-Iran missions in Syria. That must have set Iran back a notch or two and cost them a few pennies—with the unmistakable promise of much more to come.

Following the decimation of Iranian assets inside of Syria, another shoe dropped, this one barely noticeable. In siding decidedly with the Israelis, and assembling a mouthful of complaints against the Iranians, a US spokesperson stating that Iran had even put at risk American lives in the middle of—of all places—Riyadh. This concern, barefaced as it might seem, nevertheless was in reference to a couple of missiles that Iran-backed Houthi combatants had launched in the general direction of Riyadh.

What is at any rate in plain sight—and has been an essential ingredient of why Trump withdrew from the ill-fated, Obama-inspired, “worst deal in the history of mankind”—is the new “axis” between Trump, Israel, and Crown Prince Mohamad. All three are biting at the chomp to deal Iran additional punishment, come rain or sunshine.

As for France, Germany, and the UK, following the kissy-kissy love-fest between Macron and Trump, and having endured the embarrassment that followed Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA, they now face the prospect of the US’s perpetual ratcheting up of sanctions against Iran. The “E3” are thus in the tough spot of having to choose between dealing with Iran and dealing with the US, with prospects of reviving a deal with Iran at best improbable.

At another yet parallel level, the new coalition of “friendly” Arab nations have exhibited nowhere near the same fervor as in the past towards Palestinian issues. Left with little incentive to come to any negotiating table, the Palestinians could well revert to more extremist relationships and behaviors. The only odd thing is that they have not yet embraced the Ayatollahs as benefactors, the Sunni-Shiite divide perhaps still proving stronger than their current predicament.

Finally, to confront the hugely confrontational US/Israeli/Saudi tripartite, the Middle East mosaic seems to be moving towards yet another axis, that involving Russia, Iran, and Turkey, with a prognosis advocating simply that there will be no shortage of action in that part of the world.