Geopolitics

Tunisia has reached a fork in the road. What next?

Tunisia has reached a fork in the road. At the end of one path, there is a complete democratic transition wherein the voices of the citizens are heard, rights are acknowledged, and the economy is liberalized. Down the other, there is a fragile central government unable to respond quickly to reform, a flat economy, and the omnipresent threat of recruitment by extremist groups of unemployed youth. Both of these paths are impacted by corruption. Since the fall of the Zine El Abidine Ben Ali regime in 2011, the newly minted democratic state has tried to stabilise operations and begin the implementation of various reforms, but the lingering effects of political instability caused by various successive governments, political party in-fighting, and the informal economy (which was at the centre of the situation involving the self-immolation of street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi that sparked the revolution) continue to fuel corrupt practices.

In fact, corruption has risen, according to Chawki Tabib, the head of the Tunisian Anti-Corruption Committee. “The CPI [corruption perception index] which is issued annually by TI [Transparency International], confirmed its increase. In 2010, which marked Ben Ali’s final year in power, Tunisia occupied the 59th position according to the CPI, while it made it to the 76th position in 2015.” Tabib explained most recently that while the government continues to prosecute members of the Ben Ali regime in court, the corrupt system is still in place that benefitted the few and due to weaknesses in the government, others have been able to exploit the system. He goes on to say that stamping out corruption in Tunisia can only be successful with political will.

How does this play out in the lives of average Tunisians? Corruption touches nearly every facet of life around the country. As most people rely heavily on government-subsidised services, declining capabilities by the government often leads to paying bribes in order to get the most basic services to be carried out. Dealing with the police, judiciary, businesses, and educational institutions are often marred by corrupt dealings since the “democratisation of corruption” has occurred since the Arab Spring revolutions. In other words, since the revolution, it not only the government involved in corrupt activities; now, with weak government institutions, there is little preventing corruption across many sectors.

In April 2017, a journalist broke the story that the parliament had reintroduced a bill to give amnesty to those who had taken part in corrupt dealings during the Ben Ali regime; the public response was swift. Protests erupted and were followed by additional demonstrations and skirmishes in May 2017 when the government sent the army to the oil fields in southern Tunisia to protect the area from protesters who had turned off the pipeline. There was a perception that the government was hiring those outside of the community to come in and work in the oil fields and little of that money was invested back into the community. “The protesters’ demands have steadily solidified: a quota of jobs for local people at the oil companies drilling in the region, the creation of jobs in an environmental agency and an investment fund for job creation programs.” Later that month, the Prime Minister Youssef Chahed launched a campaign aimed at cracking down on corruption across the public and private sectors. While the campaign has been immensely popular among Tunisians, there are those that believe the campaign was strategically launched to turn attention away from the country’s economic woes.

Because Tunisia has been the darling of the international community since the Arab Spring protests, international assistance is saturating the scene. The International Monetary Fund started implementation of a 4-year Extended Fund Facility (EEF) in 2016. In August 2017, Björn Rother of the IMF visited Tunisia to check on progress of the EEF’s implementation. “The outlook for the Tunisian economy is slowly improving, but challenges remain. Growth is on track to reach 2.3 percent in 2017, supported by a pick-up in phosphates, agriculture, and tourism. But structural obstacles in the economy continue to weigh on exports.” Structural obstacles include systemic and widespread corruption, but with the government’s new anti-corruption campaign, there is hope that it will boost business confidence in Tunisia.

As Tunisia progresses on this path toward economic development, there will be bumps along the way and dealing with corruption will continue to be a priority. The government’s efforts to become more transparent and accountable is in direct response to not only the Arab Spring protests, but also because the government understands that democratic transition must go hand in hand with economic development, thus addressing the most basic demands of the Tunisian youth.